There is no doubt that 2012 is the last ten years, the most difficult year for the China steel industry, whether manufacturers or trading enterprises are facing tremendous pressure. Near the end of the year, the industry is looking forward to the upcoming 2013, however, the steel industry has entered a cyclical correction in the context of slow economic growth, China steel supply and demand will further exacerbate the coming year, the Steel City, I am afraid it is still hard to Sudden Impact.

For the real economy, especially the manufacturing sector ubiquitous overcapacity, big but not strong, domestic consumption, lack of motivation and other issues. China's economy is facing two problems of structural and cyclical adjustment, the GDP growth rate of about 7% to 8% will be the norm in the future.

The IMF and the World Bank have also lowered the global and China's economic growth is expected in the next two years. IMF to China's 2013 growth forecast down to 8.2%, 0.6 percentage points lower than at the beginning, the World Bank cut China's 2013 GDP growth to 8.1% from 8.6% previously expected.

It can be predicted that in 2013, China's economy will maintain slow growth, annual GDP growth rate is expected to be between 7.6% to 8%.

Comparing the 2012 steel suppliers, we can find the steel pipe and steel plate demand are larger, like ERW pipe , seamless pipes, hot rolled steel plate, cold rolled steel, etc. Besides, the steel coil always keeps a balance situation. Of course, for many industries, galvanized steel coil, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil are playing key role for their production. We can believe these special steel coil will have a bigger supplying and demand.

Based on scale effect, reduce the pursuit of merger risk factors to consider, in recent years, China's steel production capacity is very considerable. According to statistics, this year plans to add 53 blast furnace, iron smelting capacity of about 70000000 tons, crude steel production capacity of 9.3 tons at present; in 2013, plans for additional iron smelting capacity of about 40000000 tons, then China's crude steel production capacity will reach 9.7 tons, 10 tons to close greatly approximation.

Considering the overall poor economic environment, the steel city is difficult to be a fundamental turn for the better, as well as the steel profit difficulties and other factors, the release of production capacity will be affected certainly, is expected in 2013 crude steel production in 7.3 tons ~7.4 tons, increase than 2012 2%~3%.

Since this year, domestic iron ore production capacity output grows steadily. ~9 in January, China's iron ore production reached 9.7 tons, grow 16.6% compared to the same period, predicting annual is expected to reach 15 tons. According to incomplete statistics, China new ore production capacity of more than 4.5 tons, and for many large mining projects, and belongs to the national or the local government encourages project, production capacity will be smooth release. Foreign mines, three mines in the vale of nearly 1 tons of capacity planning completed and put into production in 2013, Rio Tinto plans in 2013 production capacity reached 2 tons.

Based on the above analysis, the China steel industry overcapacity in the illness has reached the adjustment not stage, is expected next year, the main varieties of average steel prices will drop further down, the main varieties in 5% the left and right sides, low will be lower than this year, this year the high and flat or slightly low, whole year or emerged after the former high-low trend.